There is surprisingly little written about the underlying drivers for the rise of cyber crime. Last spring I was asked to present a Doomsday Scenario at a security trade show in Boston. I chose an apocalyptic view of cyber crime growing to the point where even national sovereignty would be threatened, as criminals used their profits to gain more and more influence over the world.

Scenario planning is an effective tool for doing large-scale “what-if?” analyses. But, of course, as the cyber criminal economy emerges there will be counter-balancing forces introduced.

Here is a discussion of the drivers behind the rise of cyber crime with a few words about what inhibitors will have to arise to slow and hopefully contain cyber criminals.

Cyber Crime Drivers:

Ubiquitous Internet. Criminals historically prey on their immediate neighbors. Everyone knows that the best way to avoid being a victim of crime is to stay out of bad neighborhoods.

The Internet changes all that. Just as every aspect of commerce and communication has been changed by the Internet, crime has evolved to profit from the millions of potential victims connected to one global network. The perpetrators of the Nigerian 419 (“Help me, I have millions of dollars that I need to transfer out of my country, all I need from you is…”) scams have been able to cast their nets further and further, as have phishers and other scamsters.

By some measures the number of people connected to the Internet still grows as much as 10% a month. Think of it; that translates into tens of millions of people each month that are not familiar with offers for Human Growth Hormone, Cialis, and instant mortgages. These newbies are prime targets.

New vulnerabilities. The monthly barrage of vulnerability announcements, particularly from Microsoft, give cyber criminals the inroads they need to devise new attacks and continue their practices of installing Trojans, adware, and spyware.

While Windows Vista has improved dramatically over previous versions of Windows, its impact on the growth of cyber will be…ZERO. It is too late. Cyber criminals have become too sophisticated. They have tools and abilities that are supported by continuous investment and innovation.

Markets for identities and tools. Online trading sites for identities create a market for thieves to sell to more sophisticated criminals. In the past, to be a successful cyber criminal you needed to be familiar with coding, hacking, credit card merchant accounts, eBay, wire transfers, counterfeiting, and money laundering. Now you can be a specialist.

The most dangerous aspect of this new division of labor is that it makes it possible for anyone with access to account information to steal it and profit from it. Every organization that has trusted employees or contractors that have access to databases of credit card information has to take extraordinary measures to protect that data. As account information is stolen it is fed into the market for ID’s where it is quickly turned into profits.